Scenario note6 min read
Hormuz: what changes when the war premium rises
A premium rise is not an alert, it is a price. How to read it as a leading indicator and which decisions it opens over the following forty-eight hours.
Resources
What we publish. And what we don't.
We do not publish client intelligence, sources, or anything that narrows the margin of whoever hired us. What we do publish is judgement: how we read a scenario, which questions we ask before recommending, and where conventional analysis gets it wrong.
Report
The tier-two supplier nobody has inventoried
Most industrial disruptions this year did not start at the direct supplier. Where to look when the dependency map stops at the first tier.
11 min read
Method
Why a conclusion without a source is not intelligence
The four layers of the GRID method, what each one preserves, and why the output must be a decision with an owner and a window, not a well-written summary.
8 min read
Glossary
Decision window: what it means and what it doesn't
It is not a delivery deadline or an expiry date. It is the stretch in which a decision still changes the outcome, which is why it is stated in hours.
4 min read
Scenario note
Shadow AI: exposure exists before the project does
How AI risk accumulates in an organisation months before any committee approves anything, and which signals reveal it without setting up internal surveillance.
7 min read
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